Arguably, the greatest risk facing the news and publishing industry is not AI, subscription ceilings or inflationary pressures, but inaction. Costa Coffee is just the latest to enter the MBA case study library (alongside Kodak, MySpace and Blockbuster) as a result of their inaction. Costa Coffee, now on the market for a major discount, has failed to keep pace with changing artisanal coffee and tea drinking trends, losing market share to disruptive new brands like Blank Street Coffee or Gails.
News and publishing organisations are at risk of losing market share. Not from each other, but from a smorgasbord of alternative information providers – online creators (on social and media platforms), AI chatbots and interfaces, streaming and entertainment platforms and online communities. Rather than blaming the market, the best organisations are taking measured actions to protect their competitive position.
But what constitutes a “measured action” versus a gamble? Ultimately, it comes down to betting on market dynamics and audience preferences that are unlikely to change over the next 10 years and then focusing on brilliant execution. That’s easier said than done, but here are a few things that we feel are good bets:
- Attention will be scarce, which will make information-dense content and human-led storytelling the expectation and likely a differentiator.
- Speciality information will be more valuable (to audiences and publishers) than general news, which will be further commoditised and intermediated.
- Power laws will persist, meaning a small set of stories, formats and voices will drive outsized attention and revenue. This will necessitate small teams with high talent density.
- Not everyone will pay directly for news or information products and competition for ad spend will only heighten. This means: a) making more money from those who are willing to pay; and b) finding ways to indirectly monetise non-paying audiences (e.g. carefully scoped licensing deals).
- Distribution will stay intermediated, but gatekeepers are likely to change (whether that’s the specific platform or the type of platform - social, assistants, devices). Build direct relationships and a reason for people to come to you directly (high-value content that is not available elsewhere. Scientifically manage the trade-off between audience and identity.
Ultimately, publishing organisations need to keep reinventing how they deliver value to their audiences while staying anchored to their overall purpose for existing. Offering up that same old cup of coffee isn’t going to be enough.
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